Sunday 2 August 2015

Is moderate inflation good for the economy?

Definitely. Inflation is just pressure that keeps money moving through the system. To have a vibrant economy, you want money to constantly be in action rather than stagnating. Of course, too much pressure is dangerousand the same goes for inflation. 

This leads to a few advantages. The main one is that it incentivizes people who have stuff (ie assets) to go out and actually put them to use. This way more things get done, which is generally beneficial for society. This means more money circulating, more people getting paid, more businesses making revenue, more taxes... All good things.

Another advantage is in fighting against a particular sort of cognitive bias: nobody likes their wages decreased. And yet, rationally, there are times when wages should be decreased. Luckily, this bias can be fooled by keeping the nominal wages the same: as long as the number stays the same, you're happy. Even if, in real terms, the number is actually worth less year over year!

Having more assets circulating also makes things more liquid. If people are more actively buying and selling, it's probably easier to buy or sell whatever you need. This makes doing actual business easier. The main point of the economy is to move necessary things between people who need them, which is exactly what liquidity helps with.

As an interesting detour, consider real estate. Generally, there is a fixed supply of land. You can't just create more, especially in the middle of a city! This means that land is inherently deflationary. If you have a prime spot of land in the middle of a city (but not enough resources to build anything), it would be in your interest not to sell this year, since it will be worth more in the future! But since you're not using it, everyone would actually be better off if you sold it. After all, we don't want our city centers full of empty lots! I figure this is one of the reasons we have property taxes, which can counter the deflationary nature of land and make it easier to buy and sell it.

This extra kick to make people use or sell valuable land—which is beneficial for the city as a whole—plays exactly the same role as inflation in general. We want to run our economy at a reasonable utilization, putting most of our resources to work most of the time. Inflation is a nice decentralized way of making this happen.

At the same time, inflation is not without risks. In some sense, it's an implicit tax on assets. Since government bonds are denominated in currency, inflation is like an extra source of revenue. This could allow a government to levy an extra tax even if it would be opposed, rationally or not. This (rightly) worries some people. However, it does not mean we should not have any inflation! It's just something important to consider.

No comments:

Post a Comment